Jackson Hole Speech Could Make or Break the Market This Fall | Weekly Business Briefs w/ Martin Perdomo

The economic landscape is sending mixed signals to wealth builders, and your strategic positioning needs to account for these crosscurrents. Home Depot's recent earnings miss reveals a telling shift in consumer behavior that directly impacts your investment strategy. With net sales falling short at $45.28 billion and a 2.2% decline in foot traffic, consumers are clearly pulling back from large renovations in favor of small maintenance projects. This isn't just about one retailer's performance—it's a broader indicator of how rate sensitivity is reshaping spending patterns across markets.

The spotlight now turns to Federal Reserve Chair Powell's upcoming Jackson Hole speech, potentially the most consequential market event this season. Markets have already priced in an 83% probability of a September rate cut, but the real question remains: will Powell signal a dovish turn or maintain a cautious stance? Treasury officials and political figures are pushing for aggressive cuts between 150-400 basis points, yet the Fed's independence will ultimately determine the path forward. Make no mistake—analysts warn that without clear dovish signals, markets could slide 7-15% this fall, making your defensive positioning critical right now.

Meanwhile, the S&P's reaffirmation of the US AA+ credit rating offers temporary fiscal reassurance, with tariff revenue estimated to contribute up to $2.8 trillion, offsetting recent spending increases. However, persistent deficits exceeding 100% of GDP remain a long-term vulnerability. The rating agency explicitly cited Federal Reserve independence as the strongest defense against future downgrades—a powerful reminder that monetary policy autonomy directly impacts market stability. Whether you're repositioning for potential rate cuts, adjusting exposure to consumer cyclicals, or monitoring fiscal developments, staying informed and strategically nimble will be your greatest advantage in capitalizing on the opportunities ahead.

Chapters

• 0:00 Wealthy AF Business Brief Intro
• 1:12 Home Depot's Earnings Miss Analysis
• 4:07 Powell's Jackson Hole Speech Preview
• 6:39 US Credit Rating and Tariff Revenue
• 10:39 Key Takeaways and Call to Action

Transcript

Speaker 1: 0:02

Welcome back to the Wealthy AF Business Brief, where we break down the headlines that matter for entrepreneurs, investors and builders of generational wealth. I'm your host, the elite strategist Martin Perdomo, and today's global news has direct implications for your wallet, your deals and your strategic molds. Home Depot is struggling. Demand for big ticket purchases are slipping. All eyes are on Fed Chair, jay Powell's final Jackson Hole speech. Rate cuts may be coming or he may pump the brakes. And finally, the S&P just reaffirmed the US AA plus credit rating, betting that tariffs revenue can compensate for recent fiscal expansion. Whether you're repositioning portfolios or watching for the next big policy signal, this episode is for you. Let's break it down. You, let's break it down.

Speaker 1: 1:12

Home Depot just missed expectations for its second quarter earnings. Net sales clocked in at $45.28 billion just shy of the $45.36 billion analysts forecasted billion analysts forecasted while earnings per share came in at $4.68, slightly below the $4.71 estimate. What's behind the miss? The consumer is pulling back from large renovations. Homeowners are favoring small do-it-yourself maintenance projects over financed big-ticket upgrades like kitchens and bathrooms. This makes total sense. As home demand slows way down, construction slows way down Just total sense. If you listened to my real estate market update last week. You'll know and if you've been listening to my market update real estate market update you'll know that real estate is in a slump right at this moment for house sales. When house sales slow down there's a direct correlation with Home Depot slowing down.

Speaker 1: 2:22

Home Depot's foot traffic fell 2.2% year on year and CEO Ted Decker says the deferral mindset is still in play. Tariffs are beginning to bite too. Some products, particularly imported goods like garden chemicals, will see modest price increases, he said. Still, the retailer is remaining to keep most pricing steady thanks to diversifying sources and more than 50 domestic supply. So I can tell you from personal experience we are remodeling a huge project right now, also owning a construction company in pennsylvania and running construction crews. They are right, and we buy and we source most of our product through Home Depot. We haven't seen a big price increase in much of our products. We saw a little brief of a price increases in our appliances for a short while, I'm going to say from January to like March or so, and then we went right back down to our regular pricing. So I think that was more so of the scare of the tariffs and all of that stuff, but we got our pricing back For investors if you're exposed to cyclical or big ticket retail reinforce strategies around consumer prudence and rate sensitivity.

Speaker 1: 3:44

Home Depot results signal caution not collapse, but clear headwinds for discretionary spending. Now, like I said, if you're watching the data, you expect this. Home Depot executives know this right. You see housing demand dropping. You see not a lot of hot purchasing power. They correlate with one another. This is what happens this week. All eyes are on Jackson Hole.

Speaker 1: 4:11

Jay Powell's speech may indicate whether rate cuts are imminent or Fed is steering cautiously ahead. Markets are currently pricing in an 83% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September. Now the markets are doing that. Chase, jpmorgan. Chase had a 94% chance. Now the markets are saying 83% chance. And the truth of the matter is we need a bigger cut, j-pal. We need a 50 basis point rate cut so you can really get things moving again. This is going to be we're expecting, with up to five cuts expected through 2026, but there's pressure.

Speaker 1: 4:52

Treasury Secretary Scott Besson and President Trump want much more aggressive easing. Hey, so do I. From 150 to 400 basis points. Me too, I'm with Besson and I'm with Powell. I'm a through and through real estate investor. I'm a through and through entrepreneur. We need lower rates. We need it now. I'm in real estate. We need it now.

Speaker 1: 5:12

The market needs it, businesses need it, families need it, americans need it. You're paying more on your credit cards. We need it now. You're paying more on your credit cards. We need it now. You're too late, always, always too late. Bro, you need to cut rates now.

Speaker 1: 5:27

That is 100% my opinion. It's my podcast. I can give my opinion. Jay Powell, cut the interest rates now. Brother, you're hurting us.

Speaker 1: 5:47

Everyone warns that if Jay Powell doesn't deliver dovish cues, markets could slide 7% to 15% this fall. This article is saying what I'm saying. Elevated equity valuation, softened job data and inflation uncertainty make Jackson Hole a potential inflection. Point Powell. I'm not going to say more on this. Cut the rate, bro. Cut the rate. Just cut the rate. Okay, just give us 50 basis, 75 basis points. It's what we need right now to get things to start, getting things moving again. Powell's tone here could make or break the short-term market. A caution stance might shake investors' confidence for sure. A clear dovish shift could re-anchor expectations of sustained easing. Either way, have defensive or selective growth positioning Ready. In a surprising twist, the S&P reaffirmed the US sovereign credit rating at a double A plus, citing strong tariff revenue as the key stabilizer against new fiscal expansion under the one big beautiful Bill Act.

Speaker 1: 7:01

I love that bill because there's a lot of advantages in that bill for entrepreneurs, for Americans. Actually, the average American no longer pays taxes on overtime. There is no more taxes on tips and wages. Yeah, there were some things cut. The thing is this, guys if you learn how, if you educate yourself on this bill, you can take advantage of it. The problem is, most people aren't educated. They don't educate themselves on this bill. You can take advantage of it. The problem is, most people aren't educated. They don't educate themselves on the bill, so they don't know how to take advantage on it.

Speaker 1: 7:33

If you're a real estate investor, I want to give myself a quick plug here. I actually studied this bill and created an e-book. If you go to my IG to add the Elite Strategist and you go to my homepage, there's a link there that you can download this ebook on how you can take advantages the advantages for real estate investors, if you're investing in real estate. I make it real simple, real plain, jane Vanilla, simple for you to understand. I give you real life experiences examples, I'm sorry, real life examples on how this could work and it's real simple. Go check it out at the Elite Strategist on IG.

Speaker 1: 8:10

Tariffs this year have contributed significantly, estimated to add as much as $2.8 trillion in net revenue, offsetting some of that additional spending. Yet caution remains. Persistent deficits already exceeding 100% of GDP and political instability could threaten the US fiscal health if the Fed's independence is compromised. S&p explicitly called the Fed's autonomy the best defense against a downgrade. So basically, the S&P is suggesting that we need to keep that. The Feds need to stay independent. I don't know if I have a thought on how I feel about that. I suppose it's a good idea to have the feds independent. Just sometimes I just don't agree with the feds moves, even when they lower rates too much and too hard and too fast. Right, jay Powell, back in 20,? If you've been listening to my podcast, you remember Jay Powell committed 21. He committed to not lowering rates until the end of not increasing rates. Excuse me, rate until the end of Not increasing rates. Excuse me, not increasing rates until the end of 2021.

Speaker 1: 9:31

Four lies, lies on lies. This is why you cannot believe what these guys are telling you and you have to be studying and paying attention to what they're doing, not what they're saying, because look at where we are. He started increasing the rates in January of 2022. And yet now here we are. Now here we are. Okay, 7% rates for mortgages. He doubled the freaking interest rates in a year, so lies, and I understand he had to adopt in real time as inflation was. I get all that, I get all that, but still you got to pay attention to what they're doing, not just what they're saying. I'm watching both. I'm watching what they're doing, not just what they're saying. I'm watching both. I'm watching what you're saying, jay Powell. I'm watching what the politicians are saying and I'm also, more importantly, watching what you are doing.

Speaker 1: 10:28

Take note investors Fiscal risk hasn't gone away, but markets see tariffs revenue as a temporary balance. If deficit assumptions shift or the Fed loses credibility, the outlook could change fast. Keep duration risk monitored. To recap retail is still moderating. Home Depot missed signals. Continued caution amongst consumers. Fiscal health has a short-term boy, but long-term risk remains. If you're serious about building wealth and real strategy, come hang with me on Instagram at the Elite Strategist. I'm breaking down in real time deal flows, wealth building plays, deal flows, wealth building plays, market tactics and we don't post anywhere else. Plus, you'll get access to the Wealthy AF newsletter, my free deal analyzer tool and early invites to our private investor events when you go to the link in my bio and you sign up for that. Check it out at wealthyafmedia and let's get you positioned to win now. Stay sharp, stay informed, stay focused, because the future looks super bright. Peace out. This is the Wealthy AF Business Brief Later.