Dissecting the Latest Real Estate Shifts in Monroe County | September 2023 Poconos, PA Housing Market Update

Hold onto your seats as we unravel the tangled threads of the September 2023 Poconos market update. We're diving into Monroe and Pike County in Pennsylvania, using the latest data from the National Association of Realtors to shed light on the current market trends. We unravel the implications of recent national sales decrease, the impact of rising borrowing costs, and how the scarcity of inventory is affecting potential buyers. As mortgage rates linger above 7%, we're seeing a 15.3% year-over-year drop in existing home sales - affordability is now a pressing concern.

As the conversation shifts to Monroe County, we dissect the 22% fall in closed sales compared to the previous year. What does this mean for realtors as the market adjusts to climbing interest rates? We're discussing escalating housing prices, potential influences from the Federal Reserve and what the future holds. As we round up the episode, we prognosticate on the housing shortage issue and how it could fuel a surge in the real estate market once interest rates decrease. Join us as we navigate and forecast potential shifts in this dynamic real estate market. Buckle up, it's going to be a fascinating ride!

Transcript

Speaker 0: 0:00

In this video I'm going to share with you the September 2023 Poconos market update. I'm going to be very specific and just give you the Poconos Pennsylvania, monroe and Pike County. Okay, guys, so here are the monthly indicators for September 2023 as per the National Association of Realtors, and here's what it says National Sales of Existing Homes recently fell to a seventh month low as surging borrowing costs, rising sales prices and limited inventory continue to keep many would-be buyers out of the market. Borrowers have become increasingly sensitive to fluctuations in mortgage rates, which have remained above 7% since August, with a few buyers fewer buyers able to afford the cost of homeownerships. Existing home sales declined 0.7% month over month and we're down 15.3% year over year, according to the National Association of Realtors. What we're seeing here is that we're seeing the interest rates spooking buyers out of the market as affordability is out the window. So new listings in Monroe County were down 7.5% to 370. Pending sales decreased 13.4% to 252. Inventory shrunk 17.5% to 835 units. So it's really weird, as the inventory is down, pending home sales decrease. I feel for the realtors and this marketplace I know you guys are hurting, as this is most of you. This is how you earn your living pending sales are down, inventory is down, so my sympathies is out to you realtors.

Speaker 0: 1:32

Prices gazed upward as the medium sales price was up 3.6% to 285,285,000. Days on the market increased 25.6% To 49 days. Month supplies of inventory was up 6.1% 2, 3.5 months. So prices have continued to increase this fall, despite softening home sales nationwide, as a lack of inventory has kept the market competitive for prospective buyers, sparking bidding wars and causing homes to sell for above asking price in some areas. Heading into September, there were only 1.1 million units available for sales, 0.9% fewer than a month ago and 14.1% fewer than the same period last year, according to National Association of Reals, tur. As a result, the US median is 16. Home sales price rose 3.9% year over year to $407,100, making the third consecutive month that the medium sales price is top 400,000.

Speaker 0: 2:29

Okay, so this is weird. I always share in this channel how real estate is market to market dependent, so it's based on the market. Of course the National Association of Realtors has this, so you got to consider the sources. They have a vested interest in propping up real estate, so where the information is coming from is also important. This is the source National Association of Realtors. So what is happening in your market. I just gave you what's happening here in the Monroe County market. So what they're saying is that in some markets we are experiencing some growth.

Speaker 0: 3:03

So new listings in 2022, september of 2022 was 400 versus 2023 was 370 makes sense, right, as new listings go up. But watch what happens here when we go to closed sales. In 2022, we had 328 versus in 2023. This year we have 249. I want you to pay attention to this section here, which is closed sales. If you go to closed sales and you go year to date versus 2023, year to date in 2022. So same time last year, so September of 2022, from January to September of 2022, we had 2732 properties sold closed sales. This year we're down 22% in sales sold. So this is pretty rough for realtors right now.

Speaker 0: 3:47

Days on the market 39 in 2022 and September of 2022 and nine of 2023. It is 49. So that's up 25%. And when you look at last year, year to date, 41 days, and this year, year to date, is 54 days. So all this is doing here is normalizing. We're just normalizing the average days in the market before COVID numbers.

Speaker 0: 4:09

But this is a big shock to the market, right, when sellers were selling properties and in 30 days. I mean we had days in the market here in the Poconoos down as quick as the lease as 23 days and 25 days, and those were the days. Those days are absolutely gone, as interest rates have gone up. Median sales price 275 and 9 of 2022, 285 and 9 of 2023. I mean that the prices keep going up. Guys, this has to change. Guys, this will change. Remember, interest rates take time to cycle through the market. When the interest rate starts to shock, remember, this is all Delayed. This is all lag indicators. In the next quarter, you're gonna see this start to flatten out. And prices you're gonna see prices going down. Last week, as I record this, we, in the week of October 19th I believe it is it was we saw interest rates cross over the 8% Mark. Guys, that will have an impact, whether we like to believe it or not.

Speaker 0: 5:11

In Conclusion, the market is still according to, the data is still showing that the market is strong, but we're starting to see some cracks in the foundation. Those of you that are realtors out here in the Poconos, those of us setting real estate here in the Poconos, know that the days in the market are longer. The prices, the 300 properties in the 300 plus mark are staying on the market longer. We're seeing decrease in prices, real time. This is lag data, real time. We're seeing decrease in prices. You will start seeing a reflection of that data here in the next couple of months. In the next couple of Quarters, the market fundamentally will have some cracks.

Speaker 0: 5:48

I'm a real estate guy. I want the market to continue to thrive. I'm also a human being and I'm for the working class. Working class American cannot afford to buy houses at these rates, at these Prices. One of the things got to give you the feds got a lower rates a or b and just so you know, when the feds lower rates and they will, by the way, I'm betting that they will not sure when, I think next year, 2024, they will later 2024 election year, remember that they will lower rates. When they lower rates, prices will come back up.

Speaker 0: 6:16

I'm gonna give you one last data point. We still are short 4.7 million housing in our country and what's gonna happen is, as demand is slowing down and rates are going up and Developers have slowed down on developing new properties across the country think 71% of new housing starts what's gonna happen is when the interest rates start to come back down and the buyers start to come back out because now they can afford these houses. We're still going to have a shortage of housing. And when that occurs and now we stop building because of interest rates when that occurs and that the man comes back in the market, guess what's gonna happen with real estate? It's gonna surge right back up. Appreciate you, thanks for watching Peace out you.